Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,617$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(266 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,969.9}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 72.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,969.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $49$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(1.53 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{54.5}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 56.3)}}\) (asimptote \(54.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $579$ on 2020-06-23

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $106,108$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(566 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{523,003.0}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 123.4)}}\) (asimptote \(523,003.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,102$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(30.5 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,261.9}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 82.3)}}\) (asimptote \(4,261.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $48,961$ on 2020-06-23

Mauritania⮸

Population $4,649,658$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,292$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(2.85 \times 10^{0.035t}\) (doubling rate \(8.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,211.3}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 86.9)}}\) (asimptote \(6,211.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $114$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(0.388 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(10.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{123.4}{1 + 10^{-0.071 (t - 71.7)}}\) (asimptote \(123.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,215$ on 2020-06-23

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,027$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(146 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,028.3}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 81.5)}}\) (asimptote \(8,028.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $135$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(10.3 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{437.5}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 121.0)}}\) (asimptote \(437.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,031$ on 2020-06-23

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $58,141$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(822 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{119,847.1}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 102.5)}}\) (asimptote \(119,847.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,365$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(75.8 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.1\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $40,241$ on 2020-06-23

Equatorial Guinea⮸

Population $1,402,985$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,664$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(89.9 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,690.0}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 64.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,690.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $32$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(1.54 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.3\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,117$ on 2020-06-23

Algeria⮸

Population $43,851,044$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $12,076$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(1.32 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,738.2}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 60.4)}}\) (asimptote \(12,738.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $861$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(168 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{807.9}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 42.8)}}\) (asimptote \(807.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,541$ on 2020-06-23

Gabon⮸

Population $2,225,734$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,849$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(121 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,192.9}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 73.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,192.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $39$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(0.964 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{107.9}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 110.4)}}\) (asimptote \(107.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,703$ on 2020-06-23

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Chad recovered 93%
Uganda recovered 82%
Djibouti recovered 76%
Mali recovered 11%

Chad⮸

Population $16,425,864$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $860$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(147 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{864.5}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 34.0)}}\) (asimptote \(864.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $74$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(27.4 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{70.9}{1 + 10^{-0.075 (t - 14.7)}}\) (asimptote \(70.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $29$ on 2020-06-23

Uganda⮸

Population $45,741,007$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $797$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(37.7 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,054.6}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 64.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,054.6\)) 
Uganda doesn't yet have 4.5741 dead per thousand.

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $98$ on 2020-06-23

Mali⮸

Population $20,250,833$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,978$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(190 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(24.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,511.2}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 61.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,511.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-01 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $111$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(12.5 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{133.3}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 55.3)}}\) (asimptote \(133.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $565$ on 2020-06-23